Financial Forecasts
BUSINESS ($) NUMBERS
The Exit Game Plan
AI-Health Financial Forecasts and Growth Strategy
Financial Strategy:
​​​​​​
-
Path to Profitability:
​
-
Low operational costs:
Our business model is built on flexibility, with most operational costs being variable and scalable. Overheads are carefully managed and will only increase upon achieving pre-determined subscriber milestones, ensuring cost efficiency at every stage of growth.
​
-
Achieving break-even requires just 2,500 subscribers.
Showcasing the strength of our lean operational model. Unlike many startups that rely heavily on continuous investment rounds, AI Health maintains financial discipline by operating with founder funding and support from a trusted network of investors. This focus on resource optimisation means we are able to allocate 60% of our gross revenue back into marketing, hence creating sustainable growth.
​
-
Debt-free foundation:
AI Health operates with zero long-term debt, providing a stable and secure foundation for scaling operations.
​
-
Efficient Scalability using proprietary technology.
Our custom-built software platform is designed for limitless scalability, enabling seamless expansion of user data processing and integration of advanced features. This infrastructure allows AI Health to continually innovate and enhance its offerings while supporting substantial user growth without compromising performance.​​​​​​​​​​​​
Financial Snapshot:
.png)
​​​​​​​​
​​​Retaining a debt free status, with an emphasis upon compounding revenue and a disciplined hold on operational costs we will avoid the need for funding rounds and investor dilutions​
​
-
Year 1: £40.1M (R).
​
-
Year 2: £99.1M (R) Positioning for a $1BN valuation based on a multiplier of 11.9x.
​
-
Valuation Targets
​
-
February 2025: £150M. April 2026: £450M. April 2027: $1B (ARR of £121M.)
​
-
Business Strategy
​
-
Maintaining debt free with low operational costs while delivering high-quality products provides a unique value proposition.
​
-
Fitness apps typically achieve EBITA margins of 20%–30% we are targeting 50%+, leveraging efficiencies as:
​
-
R&D and product development are complete.​
​
-
A focus on recurring revenue streams, with a high impact compounding revenue strategy.
​
-
A robust strategy encompassing user acquisition, tiered pricing, and monetisation through subscriptions, premium features, and B2C channels.
​
-
Emphasis on revenue compounding and disciplined cost management enables self-sustained growth.
​
-
With seven apps designed to achieve the performance benchmarks of competitors’ single apps, we maximise our market impact.
​
-
The chart below shows each of our apps need only approx 0.02% subscriber capture of the total specialised market size to hit year 1 forecasts.
​​​​
-
Proven Traction and Readiness: With apps already live and a comprehensive pipeline ready to roll out, investors are joining at the optimal moment for high returns with minimal risk.
​
-
Hyper Scaling: Forecasting significant growth on the back of seven revenue-ready apps, aiming for $100 million GAR within two years without relying on sole investment money
​
-
Sustainability and Ethical Practices: Adherence to European Sustainability Policy, setting new standards in health and fitness app development, focusing on accuracy, validation of data, and developer accountability.
​
-
Operational Excellence: Commitment to delivering projects within 5% of cost and time forecasts, with a focus on onboarding experienced professionals and formalising strategic partnerships.
AI-Health Financial Overview & Strategic Forecast
1. Allocation of Capital
AI-Health Ltd - Capital injection will be used to support the ‘full launch’ of our live 2 apps and the rapid hyper-scaling of the business and our remaining 5 apps.​​
​​​​
-
​App Releases: Ensuring the successful launch and continuous improvement of all AI Health applications, including our flagship walking app, Walk Ailly.
​
-
New Development Operation: Restructure the business operation of our development team in india.
​
-
Marketing and Promotional Expenditures: Executing comprehensive marketing strategies to increase brand awareness and user acquisition.
​
-
Action a Strategic PR Strategy, partnering with Apple UK Marketing & PR with the aim of defining and scaling both our branding & media presence.
​
-
Key Staff Hires: Recruiting top-tier talent for critical roles including:
​
- CFO
- CMO
- Social Content Creators​
-
​​Creative Media and Content Creation: Investing in innovative media and content to enhance user engagement and retention, ensuring our applications stand out in a competitive market.
​
-
Open Ailly Connect Hub [London] {Funded from Retained Profits}: We will be the 1st and only “app business” with retail units, so we can “connect with our customers, the public and our business partners”. There will no added costs to our overheads. The locations (global ) will be office/ retail space and house our key operational staff who will also cover the shop floor. We anticipate public footfall over of 10-15k per month = extra 3k subscribers.
​
​​​​​​​​
Creative Retail Space Ailly Connect Hub
Health
RETAIL LONDON
Allocation Summary
The allocation of capital for AI Health has been strategically designed to prioritize marketing, PR, and content creation, which are critical for driving growth and supporting the rollout of our seven apps.
Marketing and PR: A substantial allocation of £550,000 has been designated for marketing and public relations efforts. This investment will amplify brand awareness and drive subscriber growth, directly fueling our revenue projections.
Social Media Content: An additional £150,000 has been allocated to content creation for social media platforms, ensuring we maintain an engaging and impactful presence across key channels.
Contingency for Working Capital: £180,000 has been reserved as a contingency fund for working capital. This ensures the flexibility to seize marketing or promotional opportunities that may arise as the business scales.
​
India Office -Software Development: As part of our capital raise, we are allocating funds to establish our own development office in India. For nine years, we have partnered with a leading Indian development company, but as we transition to full operational status and prepare for a potential exit, it is critical to bring all resources under AI Health's ownership. This initiative involves directly employing our development team and continuing the hands-on approach that has defined our work, ensuring that the division operates as an integrated and wholly-owned part of AI Health.
​
-
Our capital allocation approach ensures that marketing investments are realised almost immediately, with the impact evident in subscriber growth and revenue in the following months. This cumulative marketing strategy supports all seven apps, enabling a scalable model where increasing app launches drive revenue growth and subscriber acquisition.
​
-
Furthermore, as subscriber numbers grow, they will fund additional expenditures, including hiring new team members, expanding premises, and acquiring resources to meet operational demands. This ensures a sustainable model where increased revenues directly support scaling efforts.​
​
-
This strategy sets us apart from traditional development companies, which often require additional fundraising for research and development—typically one of the most inefficient and unpredictable costs. By focusing on marketing-driven growth rather than R&D-heavy expenses, AI Health is positioned for efficient and measurable scalability.
2. The Health Tech Market
-
8 IN 10 iPhone & Apple Watch users use a health app.
​ -
94% of Gen Z users want to improve their health through apps, followed by millennials at 90%, Gen X at 82% and Boomers at 65% with adoption rates of health and fitness apps fairly similar across all income levels.
-
The global digital health market sector is growing at expediential rates. 195B (2021) to 946B by 2030.
-
Health app market. 2022 = 45.31B > 2023 56.77B at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.3% expected to grow to $136.64b in 2027 at a CAGR of 24.6%
-
Fitness app market. 10.13B > 29.16B in 2027. CAGR of 23.1%
-
Women’s health app market. 3.1B > 18.5B by 2031. CAGR of 20.1%.
-
Sleep app market. 14.5B > 61.2B by 2030. CAGR of 17.1%.
-
Running apps market 582.47M > 1.5B by 2027. CAGR of 17.67%.
-
Personal trainer software market. 1.24B > 2.6B by 2030
OUR REVENUE MODELS
Our Revenue Model Explained: How Will We Earn Money?
​
​
-
App store subscriptions – AI Health enables consumers to download our applications for free but the free version doesn’t provide access to the entire programs within the apps. ​
​
-
To enjoy all of the chosen apps full library of programs - workouts, meditation and more, the app charges a subscription fee, which is the main contributor to the AI Health revenue stream.
​
-
Users can app choose from two subscription plans:
​
-
​​1. Monthly Subscription Plan: £ xxx per month
​
-
2. An Annual Subscription Plan: £ xxx per year
​​
AI-Health -Product Revenue
" 2 APPS NOW LIVE , 5 MORE READY TO RELEASE "
OUR REVENUE MODELS
B2B Subscription Revenue
2B subscription revenue model in the form of packages exclusively for businesses:
AI Health Apps for your Team: Designed for companies with 5 to 1000 people. As you add more users, the subscription fee per user decreases.
​
AI Health for Business: Designed for companies with more than 1000 people. By buying AI Health apps for your team through B2B packages, each member of your company will get access to the complete library of all our apps.​
Executive -Summary
AI-Health offers an unparalleled opportunity for large corporations to transform their employee wellness programs through the integration of a scientifically validated, clinically robust app suite. This strategy addresses rising corporate challenges around employee health, absenteeism, and escalating insurance costs.
£5.9m
Annual Revenue
A corporation with 50,000 employees subscribing to the Walk & Fitness Ailly app suite at £9.99/month:
£15.5m
Annual Revenue
A corporation with 100,000 employees subscribing to the expanded suite including Walk Ailly, Fitness Ailly, Her Ailly, Run Ailly & Sleep Ailly at £12.99 m/o
1. Numbers and Financial Forecasts
​​​​
1.1 Monthly Financial Reporting Yr-1
​​
The monthly financial reporting data provides a comprehensive look at the projected new subscriptions and revenue streams for AI-Health from April 2025 to March 2026. We are considering this as year 1 of trading as all apps will be live.
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​​​
​
-
Below are the key figures:
​
-
New Subscribers (Annual and Monthly) - 7 Apps Live
​​
-
In April 2025, AI-Health expects:
​
-
​44,400 m/o (S) & 2145 yr (S) obtained from Jan - April 2025.
​
-
In Sep 2025, AI-Health expects:
​
-
​177,544 total m/o (S) & 13,535 yr (S) from Jan 2025 -Sep 2025.
​
-
In March 2026, AI-Health expects:
​
-
​450,456 total m/o (S) & 52,740 yr (S) from Jan 2025 -March 2025
​
-
Revenue Projections - 7 Apps Live
​
-
By February 2025, AI-Health expects:
​
-
​From just 2 of our apps live we expect monthly revenue of £170k + which signals the company will be cash positive.
​
-
See Marketing Subscribers Breakdown :
​
​
​​
​​
​​
-
By March 2026, AI-Health expects:
​
-
Monthly revenue to hit £7 m across our 7 apps - This will give the company its target of £84 m ARR
​
-
This will be achieved from 503k total subscribers.
​
-
It is worth highlighting; that we need <0.02% of market share from each app sector to achieve our year-1 projections (see chart below)
​
-
By March 2027, AI-Health expects:
​
-
Total subscribers to hit £1.1 m across our 7 apps.
​
​​​
​1.1.1 Cohort Retention
-
The cohort retention data highlights the subscription retention rates over a 12-month period, essential for understanding customer longevity and subscription sustainability.
1.1.2 Retention Rates Per App
-
Initially, the retention rate is 100%. There is a significant drop to around 50% by the 12th month, followed by stabilisation of around 20-30% at 14 months and onwards
​
-
We have therefore have taken a mean average retention of 40% of 2025/2026 base subscribers.​​
​
-
These figures underline the importance of continuous engagement and customer satisfaction strategies to maintain a healthy subscriber base.​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
2.5k Subscribers
Covers Costs
Revenue from 2.5k users will cover our present base business costs.
£0k
Business Debt
We aim to remain lean by only increasing costs upon “ revenue performance”.
Financial P&L [Yr-1]
​​​​2.0 Profit & Loss
​
2.1 Revenue Streams
​
Initially, the retention with a split between annual and monthly subscriptions. The increasing trend in new subscribers indicates a strong market demand and effective marketing strategies.
2.2 Expense Breakdown
-
Marketing Budgets: Allocation increases in correlation with projected subscriber growth. Strategic investment in marketing is evident, aimed at acquiring new users and retaining existing ones.
​
-
Operational Costs: Fixed costs remain steady, while variable costs grow with subscriber numbers. Efficient cost management strategies are crucial to maintaining profitability.​
​
1.2 Financial Reporting Yr-2
​​
IAP Revenue (In-App Purchase Revenue)
-
Revenue breakdown for years 1 & 2 showing comparing IAP from both new subscribers (NS) within the financial year (thus excluding retained subscribers (RS) from previous years) and the Total Revenue RS+NS
​
-
Year 2 revenue: Is based upon conservative new subscriber growth and with Retained Subscribers of 42 %.
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Fitness Apps: Revenue Comparisons.
Path to Profitability:
Expedited Growth Examples:
-
​MIND-BODY: $350M in 2021, $230M in 2018, $182M in 2017, $139M in 2016, $101M in 2015.
​
-
CALM APP: $80M in 2018, $150M in 2019, $355M in 2022
​
-
STRAVA: $60M in 2019, $98M in 2020 & $275M in 2023
​​
Forecasted
Numbers
1. Based upon securing £1m capital raise - with £300k min secured by 01-01-25.
​
2. We have not included B2B revenue from Corporate Ailly
​​​​​​
-
Year 2 will see a focus on subscriber retention and compounding MRR so that we hit our target of > £100 m in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR).
​
-
YR2 forecasted; > 1.1 m subscribers across our 7 apps.
​
-
​March 2027; (R) £99.1m with a forecasted £121m ARR
​
-
​Increased Focus; On B2B (Corporate Ailly) revenue.
​
-
​Ailly Hub London: Public Footfall 10-15k per month = extra 3k (S).
​
-
​Cross App Sales: We will target existing subscribers with offers and incentives use more than one of our apps.
​
-
​Android: We forecast growth of circa 30% upon the release of our software on Android devices. ​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
IAP Revenue
(In-App Purchase Revenue)
Valuation Forecasts
The Maths
1st Valuation Goal:
£150 Million by Feb 2025
Forecasted
Numbers
1. Based upon securing £1m capital raise - with £300k min secured by 01-01-25.
​
2. We have not included B2B revenue from Corporate Ailly
AI-Health Ltd
​
Our valuation projection is grounded in a proven income-to-valuation scaling metric. A company generating £84 million in annual income is typically valued at £1 billion, equating to a ratio of 11.9x annual income to valuation.
Applying this same scaling, we calculate that an annual income of £12.6 million would support a valuation of approximately £150 million.
This methodology provides a reliable and transparent framework for assessing our potential market value based on subscriber growth and app performance.
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
By February 2025, AI Health will aim for a valuation of £150 million, driven by the scaling performance of our suite of seven apps. This projection is based on achieving clear and deliberate subscriber milestones:
​
February 2025: Our first app, Walk Ailly, will have been live for two full months, during which we project 6,600 paying subscribers at £12.99 per month.
February 2025: Our second app, Fitness Ally, will similarly achieve 6,600 subscribers.
​
The above would give AI-Health ARR of £3.5m from just 2 apps. Thus, by maintaining this trajectory, as each additional app is launched over the subsequent months, we will reach a total subscriber base of approximately 80,000 subscribers across seven apps by the end of the rollout ( April 2025)
With an ARR of £12.6 million, these milestones directly support a valuation of £150 million, using the proven scaling metric of 11.9x income-to-valuation.
​
Our subscriber data will validate our projections, demonstrating that we are on track to achieve these markers and secure this valuation by February 2025.
​
​
This is how Runna App went from 18k subscribers to
120,000 subscribers in 12 months
​​​​​​​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
3. $1bn Market Valuations
Valuation Goal:
$1BN March 2027
​
-
AI Health has a strategic roadmap to achieve a $1 billion valuation within two years, leveraging its portfolio of seven innovative apps.
​
-
Industry Benchmarks:
​
-
Strava: In 2020 the fitness tracking app Strava reached a $1.5 billion valuation with annual revenues of approximately $100 million, indicating a 15x revenue multiple
​
-
Flo Health: In July 2024, Flo Health, a leading women's health app, secured a $200 million investment, As of June 2024, the company supports nearly 70 million monthly active users (MAUs) and close to 5 million paid subscribers. At the time of investment, Flo reported annual revenues of approximately $100 million, giving a $1 billion valuation, indicating a valuation-to-revenue multiple of 10x. ​​​
​
-
Calm: The meditation and sleep app Calm achieved a $2 billion valuation with annual revenues around $200 million, reflecting a 10x revenue multiple.
​
-
AI -Health's 2 Year Vision
​​
-
Based on a well-established income-to-valuation scaling ratio of 11.9x, the target annual income required to support this valuation is approximately $84 million.
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​
​​
​
​​​​​​
-
To achieve this, each app must generate an annual income of $12 million, equating to approximately 76,000 subscribers per app, assuming a subscription fee of $12.99 per month.
​
-
Across all seven apps, this amounts to a total subscriber base of 532,000 users.
​
-
This strategy highlights that the scale of the target is achievable due to the collective power of all seven apps contributing proportionally to revenue. With each app designed to meet unique user needs, AI Health is positioned to consistently grow its subscriber base, demonstrating the viability of this target and the soundness of our long-term vision.​​​
​
-
Below: Subscriber Numbers, Revenue and Growth of Key Players
​​​​
Fitness Apps: Revenue Comparisons.
Path to Profitability:
Expedited Growth Examples:
-
​MIND-BODY: $350M in 2021, $230M in 2018, $182M in 2017, $139M in 2016, $101M in 2015.
​
-
CALM APP: $80M in 2018, $150M in 2019, $355M in 2022
​
-
STRAVA: $60M in 2019, $98M in 2020 & $275M in 2023
​​
KEY MARKET INSIGHTS
​3.0 Strategies for Staying Lean
3.1 Financial Forecasts and Budgeting
-
AI-Health's financial forecasts show a prudent approach to growth. By closely monitoring financial metrics and adjusting budgets accordingly, the company can ensure sustainable growth without overspending.
3.2 App Subscription Numbers
​
-
User Acquisition and Retention: Focus on customer retention through value-added services and continuous engagement. Utilising data analytics to predict churn and implement preemptive measures.
3.3 Cost Management
-
Operational Efficiency: Streamlining operations to reduce overhead costs. Leveraging automation and AI to minimise manual interventions and errors.
​
-
Marketing Efficiency: Data-driven marketing campaigns to maximise ROI. Strategic partnerships and organic growth initiatives to reduce dependency on paid advertising.
3.4 Continuous Improvement
-
Product Development: Regular updates and feature enhancements to keep the app relevant and useful. User feedback loops to drive improvements and address issues promptly.
​
-
Scalable Infrastructure: Investing in scalable technology infrastructure to support growth without proportional increases in costs. Cloud-based solutions for flexible and cost-effective scalability.